Private: Intelligence

Is search dead? 

From a business perspective the obvious answer is no, with as much as 40% of all online ad dollars going towards search.  From a consumer perspective, search is very much alive and well and actually increasing in its prominence when you factor in the growth of mobile search and people searching on the go.  The question I ask is whether anyone new can start a business in search and compete for revenue with Google in the marketplace.  I guess the real question is whether or not innovation and the opportunity for new ideas in the search category are dead.

There are a number of new start-ups trying to make a name for themselves in search, like Blekko and Topsy.   Some of these start-ups come at the business from the perspective of social search or mobile search.  Some try to innovate on the results formatting, or the results themselves, by bringing new algorithm’s into the mix.  Most never get picked up by the masses in the way Google did.  Google came along at the exact right moment in time, when Infoseek, Alta Vista, Webcrawler and the others were unable to keep up with the demand and provide accurate, fast results.    Google was simple, had little clutter, and professed to do nothing other than provide you with the results you need, when you need them.  They built a model on accuracy and speed, and to this day they still display the scope of results and the time to provide them, even in this age of instant results.

So the question remains, will anyone ever come along to challenge for the throne?  Is there room for someone else to come in, innovate, and create a viable, long-lasting business?  Bing has proven that if you have enough money, and a hook, people will give you a shot.  That translates (in my eyes) to the idea that Google does have some chinks in the armor.  Not everyone on earth wants Google to win.  That being said, the vast majority of the world really doesn’t care whether Google “wins” or not.  They just want to find stuff fast.

The opportunity, in my eyes, lies in the new platforms, like tablet computers and car dashboards.  The mobile space itself is a catch-all for these categories, but fundamentally it’s about apps and the experience off the computer.  Search in a different environment is still up for grabs, because as far as I can tell Google hasn’t made that move yet.  To the start-ups and new companies looking to unseat Google on the desktop, I wish you luck but I don’t bet much on your success.  Google has won that battle for a long time to come.  The battle that should be fought is the one in areas where they aren’t yet playing.  The battle involves new form factors and user interface, and it involves cataloguing local information more than the general library of the web.  Think of it as the battle between the Dewey Decimal System and the Phone Book (unfortunately some of you reading this article will have no frame of reference for either of these, but go with it).  The Dewey Decimal system catalogued a library, but was useless in the real world.  The Phone Book catalogued the world you live in, but was useless in the library.  The real world is like the Phone Book and that is where the opportunity exists.

Think of it another way; if someone builds a better mousetrap, with cooler colors, made from stainless steel and guaranteed to kill a mouse in 0.20 seconds, but the old mousetrap works just fine, everyone has the old mousetrap and your grandparents know how to use the old mousetrap really well, then no-one will buy the new mousetrap. It’s not cynicism, its realism. 

I think the opportunity for innovation in search lies off the computer and as search integrates into every other device.  That’s where I’d be betting my money.

Do you agree?