Private: Intelligence

It’s that time of year once again!  The time of year when pundits such as myself get up on their soapbox and make pointless predictions for the coming year that are little more than rehashed and half-baked versions of the same predictions their peers are making right now. 

Nobody wants to read those.

I like my predictions to be a bit more provocative, so with that I give you my thoughts (some rational, some requiring a bit more explanation) for the next 12 months as we drive into 2011…

First off, following a post I made two weeks ago, I predict that some major Fortune 500 brand will drop its agency in favor of a DSP solution combined with dynamic ad generation for a 100% automated online presence.  They will fully remove customized, integrated placements and rely solely on targeting and machine-based learning and analytics.  This will signal a wake-up call for the agency business that they need to start training their staff and using technology the right way or they will be battling their own extinction for years to come.

I also predict that a major magazine (i.e. ESPN the Magazine, Cosmopolitan or Details) will go 100% online and tablet (iPad, Galaxy, etc.) due to decreased ad page revenue and the costs to maintain a printed version.  Their subscribers will be given total access as a shifted subscriber and the quality of the content will remain very high as they also move to integrate more with technology like that of FlipBoard.

Speaking of FlipBoard, I have to assume that their business model is more than just technology so I predict that sometime in 2011 we’ll see them begin to make publisher acquisitions and start to amass a collection of owned and operated assets beyond just their technology platform.  This move will begin to position Flipboard as the precedent for a 21^st century content network.  Flipboard could become the model for companies like Conde Nast; at the core technology driven with a content-centric revenue model.

Speaking of the app space, I predict that Nielsen and Comscore will start counting apps as a media vehicle and applying these to the overall numbers for publishers.  Apps are overlooked in many cases, but if these syndicated tools can begin to track them as a stand-alone medium, I think most brands would be surprised at the volume of activity they represent.

 Outside of the media and advertising space, I foresee some of the following:

• iTunes will release a cloud-based storage mechanism allowing us to share our music library anywhere at any time rather than having to copy files from one computer to the next and authorize those computers.
• The iPad2 will release as a thinner version of itself, with a camera.
• The Amazon Kindle will come out with a color version (for the pictures).

And while standing on a very thin sheet of ice, I predict the following will happen in 2011:

• Google will buy Yahoo.
• Microsoft will buy AOL, but no-one will really care.

As tends to happen in the space, Google’s moves will outshine that of everyone else.  Google will buy Yahoo just to stop Microsoft from doing so, and to stop AOL and Yahoo from merging.  Google will mine the various pieces of technology that Yahoo owns, and integrate Google search back into Yahoo.

Microsoft will acquire AOL, but Microsoft won’t really know what to do with AOL and will pretty much leave them alone until someone comes looking to buy up some of the pieces later in 2013.

By then we’ll all be surfing the web on the iPhone6 and iPad3, both of which will fully integrate Flash and HTML5 easily and integrate with the dashboard of your car allowing you to dictate all of your email while commuting to work.

Some of these services are already available, which makes it even more interesting since these predictions don’t really feel too far off!   Until then, please have a wonderful holiday season and enjoy the final weeks of 2010!